09 Top Ten Chinese economy forecast what kind of paint industry will usher in development mode.

<p> If 2008 is a threshold, then experienced setbacks and challenges, in 2009 we have reason to more of a calm. .</ P> <p> challenges may still not small, maybe even great difficulty, but in the crisis, the small differences, and determination to big. .30 years of successful experience in reform and opening up to us in the predicament is more calm. .As long as we insist, do not toss. .</ P> <p> particularly important is that 60 years of New China, great changes occurred in history, we are convinced that we are moving in the right road, the road leading to the great road to prosperity - a great prosperous China .countries to achieve the great rejuvenation of Chinese nation. .</ P> <p> not smooth the road ahead, we can not predict what difficulties will be encountered, but these have not change our direction, to stop our pace. .</ P> <p> urbanization, industrialization has not been completed, it will become the two wheels of progress; demographic dividend will also play a role in the future, we will be more benefit from the improvement of population quality; system, the release of energy and momentum changes .space as a huge economic restructuring, structural adjustment will bring us higher quality growth. .Moreover, we have the vast rural areas to be developed, the huge domestic demand for mining. .During the New Year, Beijing, Shanghai and other consumer market more active than ever let us feel the warmth in a crisis. .</ P> <p align="center"> </ p> <p> 2009, we need more of a quiet, more of a self-confidence. .</ P> <p> experienced in 2008 we learned that what the 21st century the most expensive - with confidence! .It is the survival of our air. .This is the financial markets, even more so. .</ P> <p> essence of faith is trust, the crisis has shaken our confidence in each other, thus dealing a blow to our confidence. .We need to rebuild the confidence of capital markets, rebuild the trust of listed companies, rebuild the trust of intermediaries, and even rebuild the trust of our own. .</ P> <p> we see the regulatory agencies to create an open, fair, fair market efforts, we see the listed companies for investors to create a better return on efforts. .Of course, we call entrepreneurial spirit, the spirit also need to invest at home, need to be more rational, longer-term, more wise eyes, to look at the great prosperity in the process of China to the important task of the capital markets. .</ P> <p> Although the road is still bumpy, but we had exposure to great journey, and create everyone is witnessing a great part of it. .We should keep this proud, perhaps many years later, would say: I did this because I live in China. .</ P> <p> 2009, we wiped off the dust and move on. .</ P> <p> Outlook 2009, the international economic environment is getting tougher, the domestic economy is facing a cyclical adjustment and structural adjustment of the dual pressure. .To maintain the vitality of China's strong growth, and enhance the ability to resist international risk, need to make more strenuous efforts. .</ P> <p> combinations of different policy scenarios of economic growth in the three </ p> <p> 2009 we will be divided into mild recession in the international economic environment, low growth and a slight recovery in the three scenarios, the corresponding design of the three .the strength of macro-control policies in different combinations to simulate the predicted three possible scenarios for China's economic trends. .</ P> <p> First, the steady growth scenario: GDP growth of 8.5%. .If the United States, Europe and Japan, the three major economies slow growth but no recession, the average annual international oil and food price level decline than last year, no incidents occurred at home and abroad; the State Council, new measures to expand domestic demand full .implement the proactive fiscal policy and loose monetary policy, the full implementation of VAT across the country, and change according to actual running around "to maintain growth, and promote transformation" introduced a series of policy measures. .</ P> <P> <P> <p> issuing long-term construction treasury bonds or increase budget investment in 2000 billion. .Broad money supply grew 17%, ensure general residential, affordable housing and other real estate projects in the normal loans. .</ P> <p> under these conditions, the preliminary estimates, gross domestic product in 2009 is expected to grow by 8.5%. .Sub-industries, the primary industry growth rate slightly down to about 3.5%. .Secondary industry slowdown by a greater impact on exports and investment, but also by the secondary industry growth rate of 10.2% in 2008 slowing to 9.6%. .By the financial, transportation and real estate services industry slowdown and is expected growth rate of tertiary industry in 2008, 0.7 percentage points. .Expected growth rate of real estate investment dropped from 23% in 2008 to about 10%, the majority of investment in manufacturing cooling; Although active fiscal policy and accelerating factors such as post-disaster reconstruction support, fixed asset investment growth is still the name down 7.5 percentage points, is expected to .nominal growth rate of 19% in nominal urban fixed asset investment increased by 20%. .Nominal increase of total retail sales of social consumer goods is expected to reach about 16%, down 5 percentage points. .World trade growth slowed down to slow down China's import and export the same time the year is expected to increase exports and imports were 10.5% and 12.5%, trade surplus of about 200 billion U.S. dollars, down 12%. .Rationalize resources and energy and utilities (market share it) the price of consumer prices as the main factors expected consumer prices rose 2%. .</ P> <p> the characteristics of this scenario is to consider an increase in negative factors at home and abroad, the domestic macro-control clear "to maintain growth, promoting transformation" policy, fiscal policy and monetary policy while making major adjustments to the strong community .policy is expected to guide, to prevent the inertia of a continuous decline in economic prosperity, to alleviate the pressure of excess production capacity, accelerate structural adjustment, deepening the reform of the economic environment and provides more generous. .Control of information resources from the current analysis, 2009, the probability of experiencing this scenario is expected to reach 60%. .</ P> <p> Second, the rapid growth scenario: GDP growth of 9% or more. .If the United States, Europe and Japan in the 2009 recovery, the actual situation of the world economy better than expected international oil prices were lower than in 2008, domestic and international economic development does not affect the occurrence of major emergencies. .Meanwhile, the rapid formation of the scale of investment to expand domestic demand, the actual workload, the implementation of the "double expansion" of fiscal policy and monetary policy, the full implementation of VAT across the country, the central government issuance of treasury bonds or increase budget investment in 3000 billion, generalized .money supply growth of 18% of new construction to investment projects under construction (including real estate) to provide sufficient loans. .</ P> <p> under these conditions, although the real estate investment growth rate from 2008 to 25% to 15%, but new construction of infrastructure, affordable housing and post-disaster reconstruction of large scale of investment in fixed assets .investment growth is still faster, on behalf of the whole social fixed assets investment grew by 24.5%. .Well as employment and income, total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 18%. .International economic situation was better than expected 17.5% growth in exports and domestic resources to maintain high growth products to remain strong import demand, import growth rate of 22.5%, foreign trade surplus of about 244.7 billion U.S. dollars, down 6%. .Will maintain the initial expected rate of economic growth rate of more than 9.5%, the consumer price level remained at 3% range of affordable, rationalize resources and energy and utility prices as the consumer price of the main factors. .The registered urban unemployment rate around 4%. .</ P> <p> the characteristics of this scenario is better than expected international economic performance and macro-control policy of the strength of overall expansion overlap, the better to maintain the economic boom, continued to expand the employment situation, but may further aggravate the energy, environment .pressure, the inflation pressure. .The probability of this scenario is expected to occur in about 20%. .</ P> <p> Third, a substantial adjustment scenario: GDP growth of 8%. .If China continues to follow a prudent fiscal policy and tight monetary policy, while the United States, Europe and Japan mild recession; domestic real estate investment growth rate fell to below 5%, the investment of new projects was reduced, although post-disaster reconstruction policy .investment support, but the name of total fixed asset investment up 14.5%, an increase of 12 percentage points down compared with last year; nominal growth of total retail sales of social consumer goods 14%, also down 8 percentage points over the previous year; the decline in the domestic economy, import growth .decline, exports and imports were up 3% and 8%, the trade surplus fell 20%. .</ P> <p> economic growth could drop to 8%. .Dropped significantly due to the economic boom, inflation pressure reduced, consumer prices rose 1%. .</ P> <p> this scenario is characterized by dramatic changes in the international environment, the economy cooling too fast, the employment pressure is more prominent, and the financial bad debt quickly surfaced. .We believe that our forward-looking macroeconomic regulation and control, increasing the effectiveness in practice will certainly adjust according to changes in economic policy efforts to run, the probability of occurrence of this scenario is only about 20%. .</ P>.