Paint industry with Chinese economy footsteps into "V"-type adjustment

3 months have passed, now looking back, now the basic question is: market crisis end? this crisis in what kind of impact on the real economy? in what the level and extent of impact of China's economy?

Rescue 10

First, the global economic crisis still continue. Liquidity crunch situation is far more than in 1998, I remember the 16 September to France, I aircraft when asked their offered rate is the number, they told me was the highest since that market is a high level of panic, at the same time, the stock fell significantly.

Market panic sharply, the Government began a massive intervention of the lifeboat, but we think that the Government's rescue start or a late. I put the Government's rescue into 10 measures, Government-to-market of the lifeboat, the first thing is the interest rate, this is the traditional method, the National Central Bank's interest rate cuts, shouting to cut interest rates, the United States has recently dropped to 0.25 United States; the second is to inject liquidity to the market, this is a typical approach, the world has already put 3.6 trillion into the rescue market; the third is to stop selling; the fourth is injected directly to financial institutions, this is a quite interesting situation before, but relatively small, this time after the mass, but many of the issues; the fifth is directly to the enterprise purchase commercial paper. This is the entire Government rescue process produces a very significant change, the problem now is that the US Federal Reserve System rescue scale and balance in the last three months of the rapid expansion. This is a huge, and affect the global economy running a fundamental changes; the sixth was to do these things, financial institutions, central banks further commercialization, must go forward; the seventh is to provide mortgage loans, such as credit default help and so on; the eighth is the SME loans and guarantees; therefore, the ninth is the large-scale macroeconomic stimulus policies; the tenth through the IMF financial support to small and medium-sized stretch for crisis prevention.

The ten things to do, I think it solves the two problems or two and a half, first solve the problems of the residents of the run; the second largest bank does not close down guaranteed; the other half, we realize that this is the need for joint action in the world to rescue.

Us, Japan and Europe different recession stories

This loss was also 1.4 trillion 5600 billion to 9 billion write-off, the verification of this world to engage in numerous bank failures, so at that time there will be numerous hedge fund companies, banks, bankruptcies also there will be many agencies. Now this loss is gradual.

Finance to the real economy, economy to G-3 a long recession. The University of Michigan consumer confidence index and the index fell very ill, United States probably have about a year of growth below 1, followed by a 4-6 weeks-speed growth, so take a downturn. The decline in the United States now also is just the beginning, there will be a greater decline.

Europe's economy will also decline, but the recession in Europe and the United States recession story, not the same place at the first European financial weighting, the European financial industry is 28% of GDP, only 20% of the United States, Japan is 19%. The financial industry itself suffered decline brought to the GDP. In addition the European bubble than the United States but also powerful, now faces a huge in Europe the same price adjustment and resulting financial and economic crisis. Europe is also exported to spur economic crisis led to the United States, now is not exported, and therefore would also have an impact on Europe. OECD indicators decline very badly, so the European crisis than the United States also further serious.

Support economic growth in Japan, mainly for export, Japan has a relatively unfavourable factors, Japan does not have monetary interest rate, the interest rate is zero Japan already have 7 and 8 years. That is, Japan's financial early bankruptcy, so there is no way further with deficit financing to stimulate policy. Japan is a passive economy, exchange rate with the world, therefore resulting in Japan's economy with the world, making Japan the next face a big problem, so when the world economy to shrink, Japan is passively by atrophy.

If we look at the whole together, it is estimated that this year or the 2010 World will enter the third round of economic recession. This year is 60 years since the first time the United States, Europe, Japan developed into a global recession, three synchronized economic growth will be zero. Economic growth in 1.5-2% of the force will be in developing countries, developed countries on the economic growth momentum is zero, our attention is growing, but not in stock, so this is a very big change.